01 Resilient Petroleum Supply Chain Network Design under Operational & Disruption Risks: A Case Study

The oil industry is one of the biggest and most effective industries in the world. Duo to complex structure of petroleum supply chains and price and demand uncertainties, supply chain design is a suitable method for improving this industry. The complexity of supply chains causes increase vulnerability to disruption. Therefore, in order to design this supply chain, attention to resiliency that enables the supply chain to perform well in face of disruption is necessary. Duo to lack of resiliency and disruption concept in the petroleum supply chain literature, a two stage stochastic model has been proposed. Additionally, to deal with disruptions, the strategy of developing refineries and replacement of bioethanol that affect oil exports and octane import of gasoline, is also studied. Results show that disruption in octane imports reduces the current net present value and in the oil transfer sector to export terminals causes a decrease of 2 % of the objective function. Additionally, using strategies such as increasing the capacity of the refineries cause a 1 % improvement in the objective function. The model has been solved using augmented epsilon constraint method for Iran as a case study for an 8 years time horizon and sensitivity analysis has been conducted.